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3 February 2025

Gain Insight from Global Trade 

Updates through 2024 to the Present.


Published: FEB 2, 2025
S&Co., Supply Chain Logistics Consulting
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This summary is a round-up of recently trending #GlobalTrade news, enabling you to gain perspective in the current situation. View hot topics and get on top of issues from last year to the present.

Global trade statistics for recent years offer insights into the dynamic nature of international commerce, influenced by economic policies, geopolitical tensions, and recovery from global events like pandemics. Here’s a comprehensive summary based on the latest available data:

2024 Projections Revealed:

Global trade was poised to reach a record high of nearly $33 trillion in 2024, marking a $1 trillion increase from the previous year. This growth reflects a 3.3% annual increase, driven significantly by a 7% rise in services trade. Despite this, the growth in goods trade has been slower at 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak.

    • UN Trade & Development1
1

 

The 2025 Outlook:

The outlook for 2025 suggests continued growth, though with some uncertainties. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecasted a 3.0% increase in global merchandise trade volume for 2025, slightly revising down from a previous estimate of 3.3%. This projection takes into account potential US policy shifts, including the possibility of broader tariffs affecting global trade dynamics.

      • Asia is expected to lead global export growth in 2024, with a significant contribution to both export and import volumes. This region’s performance is driven by countries like China, India, Viet Nam, and Singapore, showcasing robust growth in exports of electronics, automotive products, and other manufactured goods.
      • Europe has seen weaker trade growth than anticipated, affecting both imports and exports, particularly in sectors like automotive and chemicals.
        • UN Trade & Development, WTO.

 

Regional Performance:

Developing Economies face a mixed scenario. While they generally experience slower trade growth, sectors like ICT and apparel show promising potential for diversification and resilience. However, traditional sectors like energy and metals have seen declines.

Services vs. Goods:

Services trade has been a strong performer, with a 9% increase in 2023, largely due to the recovery in international travel and demand for digitally delivered services. This trend is expected to continue, providing a counterbalance to the slower growth in goods.

      • World Economic Forum

 

Challenges and Opportunities:

Geopolitical Tensions:

    • These pose significant risks to trade forecasts, with potential policy shifts in major economies like the US causing uncertainty.

Trade Diversification:

    • Opportunities exist for developing economies to strengthen their trade positions through high-growth sectors and by reducing dependencies on traditional markets.

Logistical and Supply Chain Adjustments:

    • The global supply chain has shown resilience, with logistics and shipping adapting post-pandemic. However, new trends like friend-shoring and the greening of trade are becoming more pronounced.

Trade Volume vs. Value:

    • While the value of trade might see fluctuations due to commodity price changes, the volume of trade has generally shown resilience, indicating sustained global demand.
      • UN Trade & Development

  In summary, global trade statistics for 2024 and 2025 paint a picture of cautious optimism with an emphasis on the growth of services, the pivotal role of Asian economies, and the need for strategic trade policies in response to global economic and geopolitical shifts.

More On “X” from @Pro_SupplyChain

Our @PRO_SupplyChain is your go-to for 2 new information from global trade trends to the latest in 3 logistics tech!

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WTO, World Trade Organization
11 October 2024, WTO Blog, Ralph Ossa, Gradual trade recovery underway despite regional conflicts, policy uncertainty (https://www.wto.org/english/blogs_e/ce_ralph_ossa_e/blog_ro_11oct24_e.htm l)
WeForum
April 2024, WEF, Top Supply Chain Stories, (https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/04/top-trade-supply-chain-stories-april/)
UN Trade & Development
11 October 2024, Global trade set to reach new high, with opportunities and challenges for developing economies in 2025 (https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-set-reach-new-high-opportunities-and-challenges-developing-economies-2025)
13 December 2022, Global trade set to hit record $32 trillion in 2022, but outlook increasingly gloomy for 2023 (https://unctad.org/news/global-trade-set-hit-record-32-trillion-2022-outlook-increasingly-gloomy-2023)
REPORT Global Trade Update (July 2024), (https://unctad.org/publication/global-trade-update-july-2024/)

 

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